Everything before was just tremors. The whole college landscape is getting ready for an earthquake.
When the new ACC contract came out, and as Mr. Mackey says, “Well, it was bad….mmmkay?” several teams started looking to jump from the ACC. Here’s what has gone down for sure:
The ACC sold Tier 1, 2, and 3 rights for a backloaded contract that averages 17.1 million, but starts out about 14 million per team. For comparison, Texas gets 15 million a year for Tier 3 (least valuable rights) plus around 20 million for 1st and second tier rights.
The ACC football schools freaked, especially Florida State. There was a ground swell from fans for Florida State to move to Big 12. Other schools followed. Everybody in every conference denied everything, as did all the big sports outlets. Message boards started going nuclear.
Just as this was settling down, the Big 12 and SEC announced a “Champions bowl,” pitting the winners of the SEC and the Big 12 against each other, unless they were in the four game playoffs. If that happens, highest ranked remaining teams from each conference play each other. This is huge, because this is the first bowl game owned by the conferences, not a bowl committee. With the playoffs taking four teams and the Rose and Champions bowl taking four more, at a minimum, eight of the top teams in the power conferences will be playing each other. There’s slim pickings for the other bowls.
The following is my take on the ramifications, and could be completely off base.
The ACC, Big East, MAC, and every other conference except the Big 12, Big 10, PAC 12 and the SEC just became the junior varsity. The bowl committees and the BCS just got notified that they’re about to become history. The Big 12 and SEC will take the plums from the ACC, independents, and other conferences. If you’re not in one of the big four conferences, you are about to become the equivalent of NCAA Division II.
The new criteria for making a team attractive to a conference are that they increase geographic footprint, but have a close enough team for a rival. With the expanded conferences, they’d better be able to fill up their stadium with their fans, as greater distances means fewer traveling fans. They need to be in a populous area that has an interest in football. They need to have good facilities or a lot of potential. Having a national brand is a huge plus.
The Big 12 would add six teams to get to 16, and I think that’s where they’re going. Monetarily, they have to go to 12 to get the conference championship game, which is a lot of money. That means they’re going there, at least. Waiting for further expansion could let some good teams find other homes, unless the Big four conferences have already made decisions on divvying up the teams.
| School | Outlook |
| Florida State | Forecast: To Big 12. The SEC doesn’t want them, because they share territory with Florida, and don’t increase the geographic footprint. They seat over 75,000 for home games, and open the Big 12 to the Florida recruiting market. President Barron has publicly opposed the move, but the train is leaving the station, and he can be on it or under it. |
| Clemson | Forecast: Probably to Big 12. SEC doesn’t want them. Over 75,000 fans at home games, in decent market, previously a power, but a little low lately. They also provide a dance partner for Florida State. |
| Miami | Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of meatballs. Big risk, possible big reward. Donna Shalala, Miami president, is pushing to stay in the ACC because of the academics, and has talked about de-emphasizing sports because of continual conduct problems. However, Miami nails down the south end of Florida, and is one of only two teams with a big fan base in New York (oddly enough, the other one isn’t in New York, either.) Depends on what the alumni want. If they want into the Big 12, they’re probably in. If they don’t, their days as a football power are likely over. They won’t go SEC. |
| Virginia Tech | Forecast: SECSECSEC. Good team. They’re sitting by the phone waiting for a call from the SEC. SEC will call, but not until ACC has been raided. They don’t want to be blamed for destroying the ACC. They don’t mind doing it, they just don’t want to be blamed. Only question is how will they do long term, especially in a stronger football conference? |
| Georgia Tech | Forecast: Stormy, with possible port in sight. Only draws about 45,000 fans per game, and is definitely second fiddle to the Georgia Bulldogs. Advantages are that it’s in Atlanta, with a huge population base, and with a little care and the right conference affiliation, could return to prominence. No interest from SEC, so probably available, if Big 12 wants them. |
| Louisville | Forecast: Blue eyes crying in the rain. Louisville has been writing their number on Big 12 bathroom walls for a while, now. Probably no interest from Big 12. | Notre Dame | Forecast: Bruce Almighty (what do they want the weather to be?) Notre Dame is the Moby Dick of available teams (if they’re even available.) Irish DNA is to be independent. They love having games all over the country. However, the path to the title is a lot narrower, now, and Notre Dame hasn’t torn up the gridiron for a while. There’s animosity towards the Big 10, who would love to have them. If they land somewhere, it will probably be the Big 12. Close relationship with Dodds at Texas, and ability to pick their dance partner(s) coming in would be huge bonuses, but really, they can go anywhere they want. |
| Brigham Young | Forecast: Dead men walking. At one time, looked like a possible Big 12. This died when the Big 12 went east for West Virginia. They’re standing out in the rain, looking for a conference. |
| Pitt | Forecast: Uncertain. Pitt used to be competitive, but not in a while. Pennsylvania is football country, so there’s potential. Advantages are close to West Virginia and traditional rival of Notre Dame. If they’re a target, it’s because Notre Dame and WVU want them. |
| North Carolina | Forecast: HEY! What about BASKETBALL? Pretty good position. SEC, Big 10, and Big 12 would have interest, mostly because they have good basketball, but they’d probably want to bring some friends. Could go with all of the ACC basketball schools to the Big 10, or with either of the other two conferences by flying solo or bringing one friend. |
| Boise State | Forecast: Blue Bayou. See Brigham Young. National attention the last few years, but the 32,000 seat stadium, remote location (plus the smurf turf) are big problems. Also questions as to whether they can play a big boy schedule and long term sustainability. |
Conference outlooks:
| Conference | Outlook |
| SEC | Strongest conference, and can add just about any two teams they want to get to 16. |
| Big 12 | Jumped from the grave to possibly being even with SEC if the next few additions work out. |
| Big 10 | Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State each draw over 100,000 fans a game. Would like to expand out of rust belt. Would like to get Notre Dame, which probably isn’t happening. May grab the four strongest ACC basketball teams, if possible. Has only added three schools in last hundred years, so expansion is new to them. Extremely stable conference. |
| Big East | Big trouble. |
| ACC | Bigger trouble. The bad TV contract will probably kill them as a football conference. Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, and Clemson are all in SEC territory and need big money and exposure to get recruits. They won’t find it in the ACC, and if they can jump, they will. ACC did the equivalent of losing a poker hand with four of a kind. |
| Everybody else | With the championship playoff and the new alliance between the Big 12 and SEC, everyone else is now the junior varsity. Going undefeated won’t get you anything, as the top teams from the top conferences are tied up for post season. Between the playoffs and the Rose bowl and Big 12/SEC bowl, likely eight of the top sixteen teams are committed to another team from a power conference. There’s no air left in the room. |
What I see coming down the road is a consolidation of power in college football, designed to produce more stability than the BCS era, which is coming to a close. This will be a separation of the haves from the have nots. Four conferences, four major networks bidding, and it saves the networks and the conferences from sharing money on marginally desirable conferences and teams. The networks would love to have stability and a consistent product.
The four super conferences will have 58-64 teams that will split just about all the big money and force the bottom half of the 120 team NCAA division to second tier status. Some of these teams will go willingly, as the money canons will have to be on full blast to stay competitive. Others will get shoved out.
Weaker teams in the power conferences got a golden ticket. Teams that can’t get one of the eight to sixteen slots currently available in the power conferences will have a big problem. If you see schools from the PAC, Big 10, Big 12 or SEC jumping, there’s more upheaval coming. If you see poaching from all the conferences except these four, we’re approaching the end game.
